
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Will Stopping the Oil Reserve Filling Lower Gas Prices?
Desperate to avoid gas price riots, Congress voted yesterday to stop filling the national oil reserve.
According to today's NYT article, the 'Strategic Petroleum Reserve' is already 97% full and yet we continue to purchase and fill it with over 70,000 barrels a day. With oil prices hovering around $125/barrel, it's becoming increasingly expensive to keep doing so.
The reserve is designed to act as an emergency backup in the event of a fuel shortage.
Speaker of the House - Nancy Pelosi said, after speaking to analysts, that this act may decrease the cost of gasoline by 5 to 24 cents a gallon.
There are plenty of naysayers, and in the spirit of ever-increasing partisanship most of them are members of the opposing party. Like this guy, who doesn't sound at all like a jerk:
But Representative Joe L. Barton of Texas (R) said the measure was meaningless. “If all the members of the House would go out onto the steps and clap our hands three times and say, ‘Down prices, down prices,’ that would have as much impact as passing this bill,†he said.
Well Joe, that plan really doesn't seem too far fetched when you think of how any other verbalization of policy effects market and oil prices. Even the utterance of the name of some Third World country and the word 'pipeline' in the same sentence is enough to make prices go up a few dollars a barrel.
Pretty much everyone agrees, that the McCain-Clinton 'gas tax holiday' was merely pandering without a beneficial solution. But is this one really any better?
Although it makes a lot of sense to stop filling the reserve when it's already 97% full, it makes even more sense to quit while it costs so much to keep filling.
This measure was passed by both the House and the Senate by a margin of 385 to 25 and 97 to 1. It also looks good on the Bush end of things. The President is unlikely to veto this measure.
In the coming weeks this plan should be put into action and then we will see if those prices tick down a bit. Right around that time, hopefully there won't be some massive pipeline news that makes us wish we had that extra 3% in the reserve. Fingers crossed!
NYT: Congress Votes To Stop Stockpiling Oil, May 14, 2008
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Comments
1 - The size of the strategic stockpile
1 - The size of the strategic stockpile was determined by some experts who probably got paid a lot of money to use their collective brains to determine the correct size. If it's not 100% full, we're putting ourselves at risk, though how much risk is a good question.
2 - The price of oil is not likely to go down. There's a limited amount in the world, we keep using it, so, long term, the price will go up (until we start using a significant amount less or some other miracle occurs). Buying now while the price is "low" makes sense.
In looking up facts and figures to determine if James' idea had any traction, I found this page fascinating.
At first glance, 70K bb/d is a drop in the bucket of 21M bb/d. But there are some countries on the list that might get a bit antsy if we told them that we'd stop buying from them. Unfortunately, someone else would happily buy that oil, I'm sure, and seeing as how demand just went down a bit and supply remained constant, it might be at a lower price.
I got the biggest kick out of the fact that Canada is the top supplier to the US of crude. Hmm. Dunno' what to make of that one.
Sometimes it about perception not
Sometimes it about perception not reality. The price of oil right now is about replacement cost , not supply and demand or cosumption. The perception to the SPECULATOR is there will be more supply. Thus level the price support and maybe stop the run up when they start actually looking at numbers.
I don't think the government buys the
I don't think the government buys the oil. I believe the oil companies provide the oil in lieu of royalty payments for drilling on public lands.
Could be wrong, but that is my understanding of how the SPR works.
we should pick one country and tell
we should pick one country and tell them that we will stop buying that 70000 barrels a day from THEM unless they drop their prices and see if we can start a price war among THEM
The CIA Fact book says the US consumes
The CIA Fact book says the US consumes 20.8 million bbl/day, so having the government stop buying 70k bb/day means a drop of 0.3% in the consumption of oil in the US, and this is just one country. The worldwide demand will drop by a small fraction of this.
The people who think that this will make a difference are ignorant, stupid or pandering.
$7.5M dollars per day worth of gas is,
$7.5M dollars per day worth of gas is, like the gentleman from Texas alluded to, not going to make much of a difference in the price the consumer pays. Pissing on a forest fire, is how some might put it.