Friday, June 13, 2008

Microsoft and Yahoo Quit, Google Becomes 'The Rebound Guy'

The Big Micro-hoo merger is down for the count again. But like an annoying couple who break up and then get back together every week, we're not deeming it final yet. Google on the other hand, is taking advantage of that piece on the rebound. High five, bro!

Just to recap - the much anticipated Microsoft merger with Yahoo hit a snag last month when Microsoft said peace out to an overreaching/greedy Yahoo CEO. A couple of weeks later, corporate raider and professional dealmeister, Carl Icahn, stepped in to settle it all out. He was ultimately unsuccessful in getting these two asexual pandas to screw to save their species.

Fast forward to today and Google is the one profiting. Google and Yahoo agreed on a deal where the big G would handle some of -hoo's advertising. Google investors got excited and their stock price raised 3.5% this morning. But is this worth it?

The deal won't take full effect for three months, because both companies are waiting to see if the anti-trust monopoly regulators have anything to interject. If it does go through, most analysts predict it will bring Google and additional $200 million in 2009 revenue.

According to a report in the NY Times today about the deal, Yahoo wants to move forward, but still disappoints the Street:

“Clearly it is time to move on,” Jerry Yang, Yahoo’s chief executive, said in a conference call. “This agreement with Google helps us to do so,” Mr. Yang added, saying that the deal would allow Yahoo to continue to compete in its two main lines of business, search and display advertising.

Wall Street was less confident, sending Yahoo’s shares down more than 10 percent, to close at $23.52, after the announcement that there would be no deal with Microsoft — not for the $47.5 billion it initially bid for all of Yahoo, or a smaller deal for any part of it.

Take away from this deal the fact that Google asserted a little muscle as the true king of search. Back in the day Yahoo might have been close on their heels, but they are too much of a mess right now to compete at all. As long as Yahoo can't finalize a merger with someone significant, Google will stay on top.

Forbes: Google Rises On Yahoo Deal, June 13, 2008

NYT: Ad Accord For Yahoo And Google, June 13, 2008

Friday, May 16, 2008

The Battle For Yahoo! Rages

One of the biggest stories in the business world right now is involving Carl Icahn and his plan to get Yahoo, but what does this 'proxy battle' really mean?

Here's a little background: Microsoft said 'Peace out' to Yahoo last week after Yahoo CEO, Jerry Yang, and his posse rolled up to Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer's house looking for $37 per share instead of the proposed $33 for their merger deal. As we all know now, that was a case example of how not to pull off a major takeover deal.

Now enter Carl 'The Corporate Raider' Icahn. This guy is well known for being both the 46th richest man in the world and also a very good corporate takeover powerhouse. In the past he's been involved in Blockbuster, ImClone, Marvel Comics, Time Warner, and more recently Motorola. But, he's attempting one of his biggest magic tricks ever with these Yahoo talks.

Icahn was watching the Microsoft/Yahoo deal with a lot of anticipation last week, and was super pissed when Yahoo screwed it all up. He wrote a letter to Yahoo and their shareholders telling them off in some pretty harsh language. According to a MarketWatch article:

Icahn blasted the current board, accusing them of acting "irrationally" and having "completely botched" negotiations with Microsoft over the software giant's blockbuster merger offer.

This guy does not mess around.

Yahoo responded by saying that old man Icahn was a little confused on the details. Apparently all the talk of a $33 offer was only that, talk. There was no deal on the table for Yahoo to sign. It's obvious that Yahoo does not seem happy about the proposition of Icahn getting involved in all this.

But it really doesn't matter to Carl what they think. He believes the battle is on, and he put his money where his mouth is by purchasing 59 million shares of Yahoo in the past 10 days. Icahn is also looking to increase that to $2.5 billion worth of the stock with the current stock price sitting around $27.

Icahn is sending the signals that he is preparing for a 'proxy battle' for the company. Simply put, he is attempting to either convince or buyout the majority of the shareholders of the company so that he can appoint a new board of directors.

It gets even better. Icahn submitted his 'list' of future board members for when he takes over Yahoo and on that list is none other than Mark Cuban. Many people may know him nowadays as the loud owner of the Dallas Mavericks who dresses very casually and competed on Dancing With The Stars.

But back in the heady days before the dot com burst, Cuban sold his company, broadcast.com to Yahoo for a staggering price of $5.1 billion. He is considered one of the ultimate pitchmen for somehow pulling off that deal. It turned out to be a huge bust for Yahoo and they never did anything significant with their purchase.

How weird would it be if Mark Cuban was back in the driver's seat and pulling the strings on another big deal involving Yahoo? I guess Carl Icahn really wants this guy in the corner when it comes down to making a deal stick with Microsoft.

MarketWatch: Icahn reveals plan to take over Yahoo board, May 15, 2008

Slate: What's A Proxy Battle, April 9, 2008

MarketWatch: Mark Cuban Comes Back To Haunt Yahoo, May 15, 2008

Monday, May 05, 2008

Microsoft to Yahoo: Peace Out

After a private and intimate meeting between the two company CEOs, Microsoft says 'No way, too rich for my blood. You guys are crazy.'

As many had hoped on Friday, the Microsoft-Yahoo deal was on it's way to handshake town on the news of a higher bid from Microsoft. They had offered $33 a share for Yahoo which was in the crapper, and only pulling in decent ($25-$28) highs because of all the deal buzz. Otherwise, Yahoo was depressing the hell out of its shareholders, despite once being the kings of the online search world.

Jerry Yang, the founder, creator, CEO, and queen nerd of Yahoo, for some reason thinks Yahoo is worth at least $37 a share, and had the balls to fly out to Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's house in Seattle to tell him exactly that on Saturday night. Didn't go over well and the deal is now basically crushed.

All the pressure is on Jerry Yang now. This dude needs to step up his game and make Yahoo look like the a prize peach over the next couple of months. Kind of like when your girl breaks up with you and then you get a haircut, start liftin' some weights, use a new deodorant, etc. so that she'll be all jealous and see what a stud you can be.

The only difference is that not many people have faith that Jerry 'Yin' Yang can actually do that. Expect him to be on the unemployment line soon if Yahoo doesn't have a major turnaround.

Bill Miller, a major Yahoo shareholder, is one of Yang's few supporters and thinks it's Microsoft that are making a huge mistake. He had this to say about 'Soft in a New York Times article today:

“They didn’t have a prayer of competing with Google without Yahoo,” he said. The difference between Microsoft’s offer of $33 a share and Yahoo’s demand for $37 a share was a few billion dollars, an amount of cash that Microsoft generates in just a few months, he said. For Microsoft, the downside of not buying Yahoo is far greater than the risk of overpaying for Yahoo by a small margin, he said.

That's where we all stand now. So what are Microsoft and Yahoo's post-break up plans? Looks like they're trying to see other people.

Many people on Wall Street are proposing that Microsoft will step up it's interest in some other internet business with the money it would have spent on the Yahoo deal. Increasing its 1.6% share of Facebook would be a good option. Delving into MySpace, LinkedIn, or even AOL might be a good rebound move. Look out for those.

As for Yahoo? They're gambling on a big roll of the dice with a Google advertising partnership. This is kind of embarrassing for Yahoo to team up with Google, after having spent $2 billion on advertising technology to directly compete and rival them. But hey, this is really all they can do now. Another snag in that plan: possible anti-trust charges? Google and Yahoo combined have an 80% stranglehold on the internet search market.

Is anyone else surprised Microsoft and Yahoo continue to bumble around like asexual pandas when both companies need a deal or face possible extinction?

AP: Yahoo Share Fall 17% After Microsoft Withdraws Bid, May 5, 2008

New York Times: A Yahoo Shareholder on What Might Have Been, May 5, 2008

Friday, May 02, 2008

The Art of Faking A Hostile Takeover

This Microsoft-Yahoo takeover/merger has been the biggest tease on the markets.

Everyday we wake up looking for those headlines saying 'Micro-hoo' or 'Yaho-soft' or something equally asinine. So why hasn't it happened yet?

Everyone knows that Yahoo is sucking big time right now. Leave it to Yahoo to be the world's most used search engine and still be considered a failing company that needs to be bought out. And Microsoft, they're one of the biggest tech bullies on the block (although a little diminished in recent years due to multiple nuggies from Google and MySpace).

Why aren't we reading about some slick hostile takeover procedure all over the frontpages instead of being forced to watch the current proceedings which mimic two uninterested pandas trying to mate in captivity.

CNBC says just give it some time, baby. These two ungainly lovebirds will make it happen over the weekend. With Microsoft offering a higher (but still not as high as 'Yah wanted) takeover big, the heat is intensifying.

Adam Lashinsky of Fortune Magazine explains why the 'Soft-serve hasn't gone hostile yet:

Yahoo is a consumer company, and many of its shares are held by retail investors, perhaps as much as 25%. Retail investors almost never vote in proxy contests... So for the sake of argument, remove that 25% from the vote count. Now that 37% of Yahoo [executive ownership] all of a sudden becomes 49% of the votes outstanding... Team Yahoo wouldn’t have to work all that hard to block a deal anywhere south of, say, $36 a share, while Team Microsoft has a huge task ahead of it to find enough votes to win.

There are a lot of stipulations in that little scenario, but if that's all Microsoft needs to hear to talk themselves out of going hostile, then I guess it makes sense.

Should Yahoo and Microsoft just get this deal over with already? How about just for the sake of not hearing about it anymore? Let us know in the comments section.

CNBC: Microsoft Raises Yahoo Bid As Merger Talks Heat Up, May 2, 2008

CNN Money/Fortune Magazine: Why Microsoft hasn't gone hostile, May 2, 2008

CNN Money: Eyeing Weekend Deal, May 2, 2008