
Friday, June 06, 2008
Panic! At the Wall Street
Today was a wild day on the Street. With jobless claims, record-breaking oil and a stock sell-off - it was one hell of a Friday.
One of the funny things about Wall Street and the stock market is that dozens of well-intentioned analysts could be screaming about 'overreactions' and 'throwing out the baby with the bathwater', but once momentum picks up on negative thinking, it's hard to stop it.
Many investors gauge the health of the economy on the unemployment percentage in the country. Today that percentage jumped from 5.1 to 5.5, a 22-year high. Investors took this as a sign the economy was weakening and recession symptoms would continue. As a manifestation of that collective fear, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 365 points by the end of the day. Investors wanted out.
According to an article from CNBC, contrary to what investors feared about the economy weakening,
many economists said the rise in unemployment was attributable mostly to more unemployed people trying to get back in the jobs market and college and high school students looking for summer work.
They really should keep the 'High School Kid Saving Up For New iPods' employment rate as a separate figure from the 'Dad Got Fired And We're Losing The House' employment rate. Then these kind of mix-ups probably wouldn't happen.
But there was a whole separate story that freaked a lot of people out today. Oil.
Crude oil prices jumped up past $138 a barrel, after sitting at monthly-lows only a few days ago (An $11 jump in one day). The sudden jump in oil prices is largely being reported as 'speculator driven', meaning these are market games meant to drive prices and make profits from trading oil. Speculator driven sell-offs or run-ups usually don't sustain those prices.
However, there is a report circulating that gives legitimacy to the claim that we will soon see $150 barrels of oil. If that 'prophesy' comes true, expect to see significantly higher gas prices. $6 a gallon as the norm maybe?
This all came as quite a surprise to many on the Street because Thursday was such a fun-loving happy day. Yesterday's market scored its biggest single day gain in almost 2 months. I heard one commenter on CNBC likening it to "when someone is about to commit suicide, they usually act happier than normal."
Probably in poor taste to make that kind of comparison, but gets the point across I guess.
What will next week bring?
CNBC: Stock Selloff Offers Good Chance To See Bargains, June 6, 2008
CNN Money: Dow Tumbles 395 Points On Oil Spike, June 6, 2008
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Playboy Starts To Sag
Playboy stock is beginning to go the way of so many soiled and discarded issues.
The stock dropped from 8.25 yesterday to 7.39 today. All of this comes after news last night that Playboy had a particularly sucky first quarter this year. The Playboy brand, which includes print publication, pay-per-views specials, and internet download as main sources of revenue, announced it would be seeing a fall in revenue from $85.4 million to a very disappointing $78.5 million this quarter.
According to Christie Hefner, the Playboy CEO and Hugh Hefner's daughter, these...
results reflected the dual challenges of structural transformation in our traditional media business and a difficult U.S. economy. Our publishing and domestic entertainment businesses continue to face unprecedented change in the way consumers access and use media content.
I'm not really sure if the Playboy company is only realizing this now, but the Internet has become a dumpster of free pornographic content for users. Getting customers to purchase $30's worth of pay-per-view specials is going to be a difficult sell.
However, according to the same MarketWatch report, subscription sales and revenue increased slightly in this past quarter. This does show that there is value to the flagship magazine product that started the whole franchise.
Maybe the age old 'I'm just reading it for the articles' excuse is coming to fruition. Playboy was one of the first magazines to feature online content back in 1994 and continues to push development in mobile distribution. This has added much of the value to Playboy's modern content.
However in times of economic distress and high fuel costs, where is much of the disposable income going to get crunched? I would assume subscriptions to pornography, no matter how cutting edge and inspired they may be, wouldn't fall under the necessities list. Especially with the availability of 'cheaper thrills' out there on the interwebs.
But Playboy has managed to stay afloat in rougher seas than this. It's a powerful brand, and the Playboy mansions continues to be an American institution. Playboy even saw the value behind reality TV with its E! Channel show The Girls Next Door, which garners an audience of 2.17 million viewers for each new episode.
In other news, Playboy just got soccer game streaker Tiffany May to sign a contract for a nude pictorial in an upcoming issue.
Does anyone expect the Playboy brand to come up with new ways to add value, or could this be the end of the line for the bunny ears? Let us know in the comments section.
MarketWatch: Playboy swings to loss on revenue skid, May 6, 2008
Worldscreen: Playboy's Christie Hefner






